Monetary policy – NBR Board decisions

According to the press release of National Bank of Romania dated July 4th, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided: to keep the monetary policy rate at 2.50 percent per annum; to leave unchanged the deposit facility rate at 1.50 percent per annum and the lending facility rate at 3.50 percent per annum; and to maintain the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.

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Financial Stability Report

As shown in the Financial Stability Report June 2019 published on June 5th by the National Bank of Romania, the financial stability has remained adequate since the release of the previous Report, yet the associated risks are on the rise, amid global economic and financial developments marked by heightened uncertainty, alongside the resurgence on the domestic front of the risk of an uncertain and unpredictable legislative framework in the financial and banking sector.

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NBR – decisions on monetary policy

As shown in the press release following the meeting of 2 April 2019 of the National Bank of Romania Board, the following was decided: to keep the monetary policy rate at 2.50 percent per annum; to leave unchanged the deposit facility rate at 1.50 percent per annum and the lending facility rate at 3.50 percent per annum; and to maintain the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.

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December Financial Stability Report

Financial stability has remained robust since the release of the previous Report (June 2018), and the main vulnerabilities have continued to be those stemming from external sources. The National Bank of Romania has further pursued a counter-cyclical policy conduct within its scope of activity, yet a balanced economic policy mix is called for in order to adequately manage the vulnerabilities with systemic potential and achieve sustainable economic growth according to the latest Financial Stability Report for December published by the National Bank of Romania on 10th of December 2018.

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Country-specific recommendations

In March, the European Council endorsed proposed policy priorities and guidance for the 2018 European Semester made by the Commission. These priorities were defined as boosting investment, pursuing structural reforms, and ensuring responsible fiscal policies. Following this step, each member state presented their national reform programmes for economic policies and stability programmes for their fiscal policies in April. On 22nd of June 2018, the European Council approved recommendations and opinions on the member states’ economic and fiscal policies for 2018.

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NBR: monetary policy

The annual inflation rate advanced to a slightly higher-than-projected 0.64 percent in May 2017, after resuming in April the growth that had been discontinued in March 2017 (0.61 percent, against 0.18 percent). Behind this stood chiefly the step-up in core inflation and the slower negative growth of administered prices, as well as the rise in volatile food prices. The effects of these determinants were partially offset by the impact of slower annual fuel price dynamics, amid a renewed decline in the global oil price.

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European Commission: May Economic Forecast for Romania

Real GDP growth is projected to remain strong, on the back of fiscal easing and wage increases. Unemployment fell significantly in 2016 and is expected to remain at a low level in 2017 and 2018. With a positive output gap, inflation is set to pick up. The budget deficit is projected to continue increasing due to tax cuts and higher public spending. The draft unified wage law poses a significant downward risk to the fiscal forecast.

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