Developments in non-financial corporations’ main financial indicators

At aggregate level, according to companies polled, the main financial indicators remained largely steady in October 2016-March 2017, similarly to the developments seen in April-September 2016. The share of companies posting higher labour costs went up from the previous round (37 percent, from 31 percent).

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Exchange rate and capital flows

The EUR/RON exchange rate witnessed stronger fluctuations in the first half of 2017 Q1, before embarking on an almost constant uptrend. Its behavior, only partly correlated with that of the exchange rates of the main currencies in the region, reflected this time primarily the changes in investor sentiment vis-à-vis the local economy and financial market, brought about by domestic events/developments, and, to a smaller extent, the external influences.

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Labour market developments

According to the Inflation Report published by the NBR, during the period from October 2016 to January 2017, the number of employees in the economy kept rising at the relatively robust pace it had posted since the beginning of 2016 (+3.5 percent in annual terms). The advance was further ascribable to hiring in market services in particular, with trade, administrative and support service activities, and transport making significant contributions, bolstered by the brisk pace of increase of consumption.

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European Commission: May Economic Forecast for Romania

Real GDP growth is projected to remain strong, on the back of fiscal easing and wage increases. Unemployment fell significantly in 2016 and is expected to remain at a low level in 2017 and 2018. With a positive output gap, inflation is set to pick up. The budget deficit is projected to continue increasing due to tax cuts and higher public spending. The draft unified wage law poses a significant downward risk to the fiscal forecast.

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